This week is brought to you by the US Fed – ShareCafe

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The U.S. Federal Reserve’s early fall meeting this week dominates global markets and political thinking, as well as the struggles of Chinese real estate giant Evergrande to survive its crushing $ 304 billion debt burden.

While the Fed meeting is the big news, central banks are meeting elsewhere in the UK (where a warning of a rate hike could emerge), Norway (where a rate hike will emerge), Sweden and in Swiss.

Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines will also attend central bank monetary policy meetings over the coming week, while in Australia, the Reserve Bank releases the minutes of its board meeting. September administration.

Plus, there are the first surveys of global manufacturing and service activity – China is not one of them, so the data may be a bit better with the US economy healthier than there was. has a week.

As for the Fed, economists do not expect any movement to begin reducing its purchases of quantitative easing bonds – which will take place at the November meeting according to Moody’s.

“We don’t expect the Fed to announce its reduction plans at this meeting. We will probably have to wait until November to do so. Nevertheless, the Fed could strengthen its forecast for these monthly asset purchases by noting that a reduction could occur soon.

“This would set the stage for an official announcement in November and a decrease from December,” Moody’s economists wrote over the weekend.

The Fed meeting also sees the release of the latest forecast, led by what is known as the Dot Plot which gives an indication where Fed members think interest rates will be in the short to medium term.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also giving a press conference where he is likely to be asked about stock buying activity by at least two of the central bank’s regional branches in Boston and Dallas.

Shane Oliver says: “Perhaps the main risk (of the meeting) is that the Fed’s dot chart of interest rate officials’ expectations may see the midpoint shift to a rate hike in 2022. .

On the data front, there are housing starts (Tuesday) and new home sales (Friday). Trading conditions September (Thursday) PMIs could rise slightly as Delta fears have faded a bit.

There are a few quarterly earnings releases – the largest from fear giant Fed Ex, Adobe, homebuilder, budget retailer Lennar, Costco, and sportswear and footwear giant Nike.

Fed Chairman Powell speaks Friday.

In Europe, there are the meetings of central banks. Moody’s says it does not expect any surprises from the boards of the Swedish, Norwegian, Swiss or British central banks.

“Policy rates will remain unchanged in Switzerland, Sweden and the UK, while we expect rates to rise slightly in Norway from 0% to 0.25% as the recovery is more advanced there than in other economies of the region, “Moody’s said.

According to Dr Oliver, the first Eurozone economic activity surveys for September Thursday are likely to have remained strong.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged on Wednesday and remain accommodative. Japanese inflation data (released on Friday) is expected to remain weak.

Japanese stock prices are hitting or approaching 30-year highs with an imminent change in the head of government.

In Australia, Dr Oliver says it’s hard to see the minutes of tomorrow’s last RBA meeting adding anything new after RBA Governor Lowes’ speech explaining the views of the RBA.

Early September Trading conditions Thursday’s PMIs for September are expected to improve slightly, reflecting reopening optimism and the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release payroll employment and household wealth data for the June quarter (also Thursday).


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