1. Yellow alert: It is almost certain (90%) that the markets will correct themselves before the October options expire!
“Risk management is a really important part.
It is not about trying to aim for the highest possible rate of return; it’s about protecting what you have. “
Leyla Morgillo, CFP, Madison Financial Planning Group
We continue to maintain defensive protection:
High liquidity levels, low or no margin, call writing, hedging, very short term trading and buying only in special situations in August.
We don’t buy today’s pyramid games that will go on forever. Some possible landmine triggers beyond Delta / Lambda Covid fears include:
- Inflation> 5%
- High tax
- No more market stumbles like AMZN
- Bitcoin crashes (broken 28K support which sooner or later) would.
- TNX> 1.50-1.75.
- A shift in perspective – compared to last month or year, but a longer time horizon leaves little benefit to analysts’ projections.
- Fall of the sharp FED or warning of a future change of course or simply loss of credibility!
- The usual assorted geopolitical threats, especially the aggressive escalation by the United States and China.
I’m not willing to buy at today’s prices, especially SPX> 4000: taking into account the downside risk and its obvious correction objective P1.
Outside of day trading and special situations, we plan to sell / short and wait to buy if / when the markets are 12% to 20% lower.
PIVOTS 2020 Close 10% – November 3
DJI 35000 30606 31963 27480
SPX 4450 3756 4021 3369
NAS 1480 12888 13406 11160
Inflation is now over 5% and I don’t think it’s just “temporary”; if the global economy slows down, then we risk STAGFLATION!
Given the still high valuations, we don’t see enough FUNDAMENTAL elements (Fed hosting, vaccines and stimulus packages) to justify the SP500 gains.
Our recommendation continues to be maximum portfolio protection.
TSLA, BTC, VIX, GME and TNX are our five “canary in the coal mine” markets:
When three or more canaries are singing, be ready to head for the hills (and / or your nearest bar) .
* Gamestop and stocks such as AMC [>20] or COIN [>225] are like Bitcoin, their trading has little or no relevance to reality.
Public valuations of large, mid and small cap companies remain close to their highest levels in recent history.
Unless verifying that the Emperor has NO clothes, beginners learning that not all stocks go up ALL the time can also time market highs).
TRADERS MAKE FAST DAY’S TRADE OR HAVE VERY DEEP POCKETSMARKER SHORTS: DJIA 35051, 35208 & 3515 SPX 4411, 4436 & 4468 NASDAQ 14836 & 14835
- After hard rallies or market declines, it makes sense to reserve profits.
- The chances of a market downturn before the end of September are VERY HIGH – Stay prepared!
- We plan to add TNX shorts (US 10 year bonds) this week 118-125
Gold Buy on dips Rinse and repeat Last purchases 1763, 1750, 1740 SOLD 1790
Money accumulated on dips
Copper support 4.10 Pivot 4
Oil 60 Support 66 PIVOT
HYDE PARK SOAP BOX: The bull is broken
NOTE: NO WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK NEXT WEEK
KEY DATES: August 23/24, 7/8 SEPTEMBER, 22-24
DJIA: 35000 PIVOT
SPX: 4450 PIVOT R1 4500 S1 4400 S2 4333
NASDAQ: 14880 PIVOT
OR: 1750 SUPPORT R1 1780 R2 1800 R3 1836
SILVER: 23 PIVOT S 22 R1 24 R2 26 R3 30
OIL: 64 PIVOT 66 S1 60
COPPER: 4.10 PIVOT S 4 R1 4.25
United States 10 years: 1.25 R1 1.30 S1 1.20 S2 1.18
DXY: 92 PIVOT R1 94
VIX: 18 PIVOT R1 22 R2 26
BTC: 48 PIVOT S1 46K R1 44K R1 50K
CLOSING 2020: DJIA 30606 SPX 3756 and NASDAQ 12888
CLOSING 2019: DJIA 28508 SPX 3231 and NASDAQ 8823
CLOSING 2018: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
AFUND Fair value OR $ 1840
Reduce risk and focus on preserving capital:
THINK TRADITIONAL SWITZERLAND AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT YOURSELF AGAINST DOWNWARD RISKS.
2. Worried about sparkling markets? It’s time to hide in the actions of Canada’s “Dividend Dynasties”
HW: While these are very good mid-term investment choices, outside of specific situations we don’t plan to add positions until early fall.
- Review your portfolio holdings for possible changes.
- Prepare a list of GOOD stocks to buy AFTER a 15-20% correction. Pick your favorite stocks and patiently bid for them.
- Stock selection is important. Include stocks with strong cash flow, healthy balance sheets and growing dividends.
- Include some investments that may benefit from higher inflation such as Gold, Tips, Utilities, Art / Blue Chip Collectibles and Selective Real Estate etc.
Preferred sectors in H2 2021:
Entertainment, Mining & Technology [AFTER a 20% correction if Undervalued & Highly Scalable]
Currently, we are also observing some To select Health care (lower costs / better results, & Distressed Investing for H2 2021.
3. “Gold goes back to its 24-month upward moving average in what we consider to be a downside in a bull market.”
Mike McGlone, Senior Materials Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence
HW: Gold is entering its favorable seasonal cycle.
Note: one can only imagine, when Bitcoin meets reality, how this could pave the way for a quick source of many new gold investors.
The fair value of gold is $ 1836 with support at $ 1750 and air resistance at $ 1925.
Silver Fair Value $ 27 with possible support tests ahead (possible long term accumulation opportunity) and $ 30 cap resistance.
There are many good buys in the precious metals space depending on your timing and risk / reward desires.
Gold: Basically, the global political and economic situation is very favorable for gold but mixed for silver (as an economic metal as well).
Precious metals remain the preferred sections. Many generalist investors now have some interest in metals and mining.
In addition, it is under-allocated by most investment programs, this gives it even more leeway, especially as inflationary fears resurface and / or if the US dollar weakens!
From where, we recommend a full and overweight allocation of the precious metals portfolio.
However, we advise long-term precious metals investors to pay attention to security selection as well.
- Gold remains a cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or do not want to buy the US $ currency as well as investors who want it safely and cheaply h [email protected] their exposure in US $, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
- Again, some investors hedge record prices for stocks by buying gold.
- Low real interest rates are positive for gold, as well as low global bond yields make gold an attractive risk-mitigating alternative hedge.
- We expect precious metals stocks to outperform physical gold and silver in 2021.
Gold FV 1840 $ = Commodity FV: 1670 + Currency FV: 1808+ Inflation Metal FV: 1832 + Crisis FV: 2050
INVESTORS: We will stay LONG in H2 2021 both as an investment and as a portfolio hedge.
4. Choice of seasoned summer speculators: pending
Many choices are best for speculative portfolio allocation and as such purchased as a member of a 5-10 group of such stocks.
Remember NOT to ignore the high potential risk, i.e. using a speculative allocation i.e. “money you can afford to lose without changing your mode.” of life “.
Always do your due diligence before deciding to act.
5. We have a lot of macroeconomic risks around the markets right now. We run the risk of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, an increase in Delta cases in the Asia-Pacific region, and slower growth in general. “
Simon Harvey, Senior Foreign Exchange Analyst, Monex Europe
HW: To name a few.
“Cryptocurrency is 95% fraud, hype, noise and confusion. ”
Neel Kashkari, Chairman, Minneapolis Federal Reserve
HW: Interesting given that some technical analysis has 3K (5% BTC High) as the target price for the medium term.
“Barring dramatic changes in the economy, the reduction in asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end in the middle of next year.”
Tim Duy, US Chief Economist, SGH Macro Advisors
HW: If not sooner, long awaited!